Fortune Telling (2024)

Introduction & Theoretical Background

A brief introduction to cognitive distortions

Cognitive distortions, cognitive biases, or ‘unhelpful thinking styles’ are the characteristic ways our thoughts become biased (Beck, 1963). We are always interpreting the world around us, trying to make sense of what is happening. Sometimes our brains take ‘shortcuts’ and we think things that are not completely accurate. Different cognitive short cuts result in different kinds of bias or distortions in our thinking. Sometimes we might jump to the worst possible conclusion (“this rough patch of skin is cancer!”), at other times we might blame ourselves for things that are not our fault (“If I hadn’t made him mad he wouldn’t have hit me”), and at other times we might rely on intuition and jump to conclusions (“I know that they all hate me even though they’re being nice”). These biases are often maintained by characteristic unhelpful assumptions (Beck et al., 1979).

Different cognitive biases are associated with different clinical presentations. For example, catastrophizing is associated with anxiety disorders (Nöel et al, 2012), dichotomous thinking has been linked to emotional instability (Veen & Arntz, 2000), and thought-action fusion is associated with obsessive compulsive disorder (Shafran et al., 1996).

Catching automatic thoughts and (re)appraising them is a core component of traditional cognitive therapy (Beck et al, 1979; Beck, 1995; Kennerley, Kirk, Westbrook, 2007). Identifying the presence and nature of cognitive biases is often a helpful way of introducing this concept – clients are usually quick to appreciate and identify with the concept of ‘unhelpful thinking styles’, and can easily be trained to notice the presence of biases in their own automatic thoughts. Once biases have been identified, clients can be taught to appraise the accuracy of these automatic thoughts and draw new conclusions.

Fortune Telling

Humans can project themselves into the past (e.g., recalling a pleasant childhood memory) and into the future (e.g., imagining an exciting event yet to come). This plays a vital role in learning, planning, and constructing our sense of self. Accordingly, we are skilled in envisioning future events, even if they are unlikely to occur.

Unfortunately, our ability to mentally time-travel can go awry. ‘Fortune telling’ is a cognitive distortion where people predict that certain things are likely to happen without considering other, more likely outcomes (Beck, 1995). Burns (2020) identifies fortune telling as a form of ‘jumping to conclusions’:

Fortune telling involves drastic… predictions that aren’t necessarily based on real evidence. For example, if you’re depressed and feeling hopeless, then you tell yourself that things will never change and that you’ll never recover or improve. Or if you’re anxious, you tell yourself that something bad is about to happen.

Burns (2020) suggests that fortune telling can be positive or negative in form:

  • Positive fortune telling involves predicting future events more positively than reality and experience would suggest (e.g., telling yourself that you will stop gambling after placing one bet when this has not been the case in the past).
  • Negative fortune telling involves predicting future events negatively, such as anticipating danger or failure (e.g., telling yourself that others will reject you).

Burns (2020) also suggests that the content of fortune telling varies in anxiety and depressive disorders. For example, fortune telling tends to orientate around hopeless themes in depression (“I will never feel better”), compared to themes of threat and anxiety (“I’m going to get hurt”).

Unfortunately, negative fortune telling is often self-fulfilling. For instance, anticipating that a social interaction will be unenjoyable makes this outcome more likely (Branch & Willson, 2020). In addition, negative fortune telling often motivates avoidance, preventing disconfirmation of the individual’s predictions.

Examples of fortune telling include:

  • Predicting that adverse events are highly likely (e.g., “I will fail the exam”).
  • Predicting that positive events are unlikely (e.g., “I won’t ever feel better”).
  • Predicting that undesired situations won’t change (e.g., “I’ll be alone forever”).

People who habitually fortune tell may have ‘blind spots’ when it comes to:

  • Making realistic predictions.
  • Considering alternative outcomes.
  • Taking positive risks (in negative fortune telling).
  • Taking unhealthy risks (in positive fortune telling).

As with many cognitive biases, there may be evolutionary reasons why people engage in fortune telling. Gilbert (1998) suggests that jumping to conclusions is typical of ‘better safe than sorry’ thinking, which arises in circ*mstances where failure to avoid a threat has significant costs. In this context, fortune telling serves a protective function. Similarly, Dudley and Over (2003) propose that people often respond to potential dangers with ‘threat-confirmatory reasoning’.

Fortune telling is associated with a wide range of difficulties, including:

  • Acute stress (Warda & Bryant, 1998).
  • Addictions (Burns, 2020; Najavits et al., 2004).
  • Anxiety (Blake et al., 2016).
  • Depression (Blake et al., 2016).
  • Emotionally Unstable Personality Disorder (Kramer et al., 2013).
  • Low self-esteem (Bennett-Levy et al., 2004).
  • Phobias (Mizes et al., 1987).
  • Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD; Najavits et al., 2004).
  • Relationship difficulties (Schwartzman et al., 2012).
  • Suicidality (Jager-Hyman et al., 2014).
Fortune Telling (2024)
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